四万亿投资能解决就业问题吗？
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><font color="black"><span style="COLOR: #2a2a2a; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">从</span><span lang="EN-US" style="COLOR: #2a2a2a; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">2008</font></span><span style="COLOR: #2a2a2a; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">年四季度到</span><span lang="EN-US" style="COLOR: #2a2a2a; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">2010</font></span><span style="COLOR: #2a2a2a; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">年底，中央政府拟新增投资</span><span lang="EN-US" style="COLOR: #2a2a2a; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">1.18</font></span><span style="COLOR: #2a2a2a; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">万亿元，加上地方和社会投资总规模共约</span><span lang="EN-US" style="COLOR: #2a2a2a; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">4</font></span><span style="COLOR: #2a2a2a; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">万亿元，主要用于基础设施建设、地震灾区的重建、节能减排和生态工程、民生工程和社会事业等方面。但四万亿投资能解决就业形势严峻的问题吗？</span><span style="COLOR: #2a2a2a; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></font></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><font color="black"><span style="COLOR: black; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">根据蓝澍霖《中国职位需求可增长性研究报告》的分析，</span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">四万亿投资方案对于就业的拉动作用有限。</span></b><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">主要原因如下：</span><span lang="EN-US" style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 39pt; TEXT-INDENT: -18pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list 39.0pt"><font color="black"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span lang="EN-US" style="COLOR: black; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><span style="mso-list: Ignore">1、<span style="FONT: 7pt 'Times New Roman'">
</span></span></span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span style="COLOR: black; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">部分产业的就业拉动效益偏低<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%"><font color="black"><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">不同产业的劳动密集程度、提供就业岗位的连续性差别很大，只有选择对就业拉动强度大的产业进行投资，才能通过投资扩大就业。蓝澍霖顾问的初步看法是服务业（包括：外包服务业如软件外包、餐饮家政服务业）对就业拉动明显。而<span style="COLOR: #2a2a2a">四万亿投资结构中，对于基础</span>设施如铁路、公路、航运、港口方面<span style="COLOR: #2a2a2a">的投资所带来的就业拉动效益明显低于劳动密集型产业，这从整体上降低了</span>四万亿投资对就业的拉动作用。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="COLOR: black; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 39pt; TEXT-INDENT: -18pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list 39.0pt"><font color="black"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span lang="EN-US" style="COLOR: black; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><span style="mso-list: Ignore">2、<span style="FONT: 7pt 'Times New Roman'">
</span></span></span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span style="COLOR: #2a2a2a; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">四万亿投资带来的主要是</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span style="COLOR: black; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">项目型就业，具有不可持续性<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%"><font color="black"><span style="COLOR: #2a2a2a; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">四万亿投资能带来就业岗位，但这些岗位大部分具有项目周期性，项目结束后将不得不重新就业，因而四万亿投资对就业问题的解决只具有短期效益，改善作用有限。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="COLOR: black; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 39pt; TEXT-INDENT: -18pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list 39.0pt"><font color="black"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span lang="EN-US" style="COLOR: black; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><span style="mso-list: Ignore">3、<span style="FONT: 7pt 'Times New Roman'">
</span></span></span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span style="COLOR: black; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">中小企业职位潜力最大，但在四万亿投资计划中受益小<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%"><font color="black"><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">蓝澍霖顾问分析后认为，</span><span style="COLOR: black; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">中小企业的职位潜力最大。但在四万亿投资计划中受益的主要是大企业，这种投资取向限制了中小企业的职位可增长性，不利于发挥中小企业对就业的促进作用。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><font color="black"><span style="COLOR: black; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">因此，
“四万亿”不是拉动就业的“特效药”。</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">要改善当前就业的严峻形势，需要把关注点落到如何促进中小企业发展的问题上。</span><span style="COLOR: black; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">政府应该将资金更多地投向劳动密集型产业特别是</span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ˎ̥; mso-hansi-font-family: ˎ̥; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">承载了</span><span lang="EN-US" style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: ˎ̥; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">75%</font></span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: ˎ̥; mso-hansi-font-family: ˎ̥; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">以上的城镇就业人员的中小企业</span><span style="COLOR: black; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">，从而创造更多的就业机会。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><font color="black"><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">而促进中小企业的发展，政府要研究如何培育</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">有利于企业生产经营的软环境：包括如何保持员工在中小企业的稳定性、如何降低企业的用工成本、如何促进和谐劳资关系的建立、如何促进社会对中小企业促进就业价值的认可等。</span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><font color="black"><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">在具体政策上，政府需要拿出一部分资金扶持中小企业的发展，建议政府：</span><span lang="EN-US" style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><font color="black"><span lang="EN-US" style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">1</font></span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">、在社会保险方面进行补贴，进一步完善社会保障体系降低中小企业成本；</span><span lang="EN-US" style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><font color="black"><span lang="EN-US" style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><font face="Times New Roman">2</font></span><span style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">、适时降低中小企业的税收额度；</span><span lang="EN-US" style="LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></span></font></p><font color="black"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体">
3</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">、制定中小企业参与政府采购的政策，加大中小企业在本轮政府经济刺激方案中的收益程度。</span></font><br>
回复：四万亿投资能解决就业问题吗？
生活日报3月11日讯日前，山东省政府下发《关于采取积极措施稳定和促进就业的通知》，从鼓励企业稳定就业岗位、扩大就业、加大政策扶持、做好重点人群就业、实施特别职业培训、强化就业服务、强化组织领导和责任考核等7个方面制定了26条政策举措。据悉，山东省将建立政府投资和重大建设项目就业影响评估跟踪制度。项目立项前，要进行社会影响分析，明确就业岗位增加数量、人力资源配置情况、职业技能培训规划等内容，积极吸纳高校毕业生、失业人员和农民工等群体就业。项目开工建设时，按规定对从业人员进行职业技能培训，并落实相关就业扶持政策。在国家公共基础设施建设中，尽可能吸纳农村劳动者就地就近就业。
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